WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 28.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 28.9N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.9N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.3N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 128.7E.
03SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//

From WDPN31:
FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE CENTER OF TS 22W HAS JOGGED SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FAST-MOVING
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO
BUILD OVER MAINLAND CHINA, INDUCING A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OF COOL,
DRY AIR EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
CAUSE TS 22W TO SLOW AND STALL BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. AS THE
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD, THE CIRCULATION WILL REVERSE COURSE
AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 72, TS 22W WILL BE PICKED UP BY
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC
ROTATION DOMINATING THE REGION SOUTH OF HONSHU, TURNING EASTWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH TAU 24-36, FOLLOWED BY A NEAR-STEADY INTENSITY TREND
THROUGH TAU 120. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR UNTIL
THE SYSTEM STALLS AND ENCOUNTERS THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE NEAR
TAU 24. THIS SURGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY INTRODUCING
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR AND HIGHER VWS. AS TS 22W MOVES EQUATORWARD, THE
VWS WILL EASE, AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL IMPROVE. HOWEVER, THE
BROAD CIRCULATION WILL REQUIRE TIME TO REORGANIZE, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST 34-KT
WIND RADII DEPICT THE OUTER EXTENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. THROUGH TAU
60, SUCH WINDS WILL NOT EXTEND CONTINUOUSLY TO THE CENTER. DUE TO
THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, THE 34-KT WINDS BEGIN
APPROXIMATELY 30-60 NM FROM THE CENTER.

NNNN


--- ScorpioWeb v0.38a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)