WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 23.9N 131.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 131.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.7N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.6N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.6N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 28.3N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.8N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 26.9N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.1N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 131.3E. 02SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 22W
(KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

From WDPN31:
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU
48. NEAR TAU 48, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG IN FROM THE
NORTH AND BREAK DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE 22W TO BE
PLACED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN
CHINA, RIDGING TO THE EAST, AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE TRACK IS
LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC. MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX TAKING A VARIETY OF
TRAJECTORIES AFTER TAU 48, WITH SOME ROUNDING THE RIDGE, SOME KEEPING
THE SYSTEM QUASISTATIONARY, AND OTHERS TAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE
SOUTH. THERE IS EXTREME UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 48, BUT THE JTWC TRACK
CALLS FOR A SLOW SOUTHWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 96 FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD
TURN THROUGH TAU 120. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS A BIT DIFFERENT COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW KEEPING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO OKINAWA FOR
A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. ACCOMPANYING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS
AN EXTREME UNCERTAINTY IN THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE SYMMETRY AND EXTENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. IN TERMS
OF INTENSITY, 22W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO
A PEAK OF AROUND 45 KTS AS THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND
SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THE SYSTEM MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAPAN SETS UP AROUND
TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING, SO THE
UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS COULD BECOME A FACTOR. ADDITIONALLY, SHEAR
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CAUSING 22W TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TAU 120.

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