ACUS11 KWNS 040709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040708
WIZ000-040845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040708Z - 040845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells will likely persist for another
couple of hours before moving offshore. Severe gusts and some hail
are possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 0705 UTC, local radar imagery showed a cluster of
strong to severe storms ongoing from east-central WI toward the Lake
Michigan Coast. Aided by low-level warm advection at the terminus of
a southwesterly low-level jet, these storms are likely elevated,
being supported by 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The large buoyancy and
40-50 kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear will likely maintain
storm organization/intensity for a few hours before convection moves
over the lake.

Variable storm mode has been noted with both supercells and some
clustering evident. The strongest cluster (Winnebago and Waushara
Counties) has shown some increase in forward speed along with
upscale growth. Gradual coalescence should continue as new updrafts
have been observe developing along outflow and near the lake shore
which may be aiding in localized convergence. This suggests some
increase in damaging/severe gusts may occur. Exactly how much risk
develops is unclear given that the boundary layer is stable (temps
in the 60s to 70s F) and these storms remain elevated. Still, some
severe gusts are possible, along with a risk for hail given the
large buoyancy and supercells. Current expectations are for the
severe risk to remain isolated enough that a Watch likely wont be
needed. However, convective trends will be monitored if a more organized/persistent severe risk becomes apparent.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 09/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6V5pzEbidfUASz-JjzXCVkQeUYNG-vH_i9Uv0RtEkGITkrcx8buNsWmZ0Wj1Q41Ji6wOyRcYzjweXqECpufD55T0smk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON 42998842 43428887 43598904 43788926 43998933 44168934
44408884 44468830 44308784 44188771 43888769 43778775
43518777 43158778 43008781 42908791 42918825 42998842

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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