ACUS11 KWNS 040455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040455
WIZ000-MNZ000-040700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 040455Z - 040700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Hail and wind threat will continue late this evening into
the overnight hours associated with the southern portions of a
north-to-south linear thunderstorm complex. Trends are being
assessed for potential downstream watch issuance across portions of
Minnesota and Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived linear thunderstorm cluster continues to
move east across northern Minnesota this evening. This thunderstorm
cluster is likely ingesting elevated but very unstable air parcels
originating within an MUCAPE reservoir across central Minnesota
where MUCAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg exists. To the east of
this thunderstorm complex, a convectively overturned and Lake
Superior modified airmass is in place, with surface temperatures in
the 60Fs and dewpoints in the 50Fs.

Recent radar trends indicate a turn toward the southeast is underway
as the complex crests the MUCAPE axis and now rides southeast along
the MUCAPE gradient. This southeastward turn would seemingly
indicate some surface-based cold pool development and some potential
for damaging winds despite the weak low-level lapse rates.
Additionally, MRMS MESH swaths have increased in coverage area,
although not necessarily consistently increased in intensity.

Environmentally speaking, the better airmass for severe potential
exists farther southeast -- across east-central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin where surface temperatures and surface dewpoint temperatures about 5-10 F warmer. Should it become apparent that the
ongoing thunderstorm cluster will realize this better downstream
airmass, a new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. However,
whether this occurs remains uncertain. As such, a local extension of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651 will be needed as trends are monitored
for downstream watch needs.

..Marsh/Smith.. 09/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ccrduSEU0lbWfnrNh3d6kfY7dAzhuXw5l68QOv9eyFaKTmGvPNqVkf8SdFPH7nF0c6ta82KDB_ET8mVk-T1568PfRU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46979509 47439469 47489398 47219314 46749178 45999134
45399182 45269288 46059427 46519495 46979509

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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