ACUS11 KWNS 040427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040426
WIZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Discussion 2228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040426Z - 040600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and perhaps some wind damage will be possible
with a supercell thunderstorm moving across southeast Wisconsin late
this evening into the early morning. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is moving south-southeast across
southeast Wisconsin this evening along an MUCAPE gradient. To the
southwest of the storm -- likely the source region -- surface
temperatures and dewpoint temperatures in the 70Fs have supported
MUCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg. At the same time,
effective-layer shear is approaching 50 knots. The result is a
strongly sheared and unstable environment that will support the
ongoing supercell as it approaches Lake Michigan. Large hail --
perhaps in excess of 2" -- and damaging winds will be possible. To
this end, recent MRMS MESH imagery depict a small corridor of 2-2.5"
hail with this supercell.

The isolated nature of this storm and it's proximity to Lake
Michigan will likely preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm
watch.

..Marsh/Smith.. 09/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-FMHp4G67qXnQT1Nf3QkK4vqYLtu2j1PQLOqERFWOBv6zEZItHUAenknoOnp6ZFoDau00Ofqc8Qn0PvY8Wo1WLT_cn0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON 43458955 44188936 44268851 43798729 43288701 43008719
42548776 43168910 43458955

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)