ACUS11 KWNS 040314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040313
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-040445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...652...

Valid 040313Z - 040445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649, 652
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple areas of strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable
of damaging winds will continue this evening and into the overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are
ongoing across portions of the Mid-Atlantic this evening and should
continue into the overnight.

One such cluster is the remnants of a small bowing segment that
moved southeast out of Pennsylvania and is currently approaching
Baltimore, MD. Another, larger cluster, is stretched along a line
from easter West Virginia, northern Virginia, and parts of Maryland
and moving south-southeast. A third area extends northwest to
southeast from northern Virginia toward southern Chesapeake Bay
area.

The environment across the region remains unstable with MUCAPE
ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg with deep-layer shear around 35 knots,
which will be more than sufficient to sustain thunderstorms into the
overnight hours. Additionally, despite low-level lapse rates being
weaker than during the afternoon/evening, DCAPE values around
1000-1200 J/kg will be more than sufficient for damaging outflow
winds and perhaps a couple damaging downbursts.

At present the most likely corridor of damaging wind potential looks
to be along and ahead of the linear MCS moving south-southeast
across northern Virginia. This region looks to remain west of the
developing warm-air advection showers, is largely undisturbed by
previous convection, and lies ahead of a sufficiently organized MCS
that has a history of producing wind damage. A southwestward
extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #652 may be necessary.

..Marsh.. 09/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_An2xuhMBITg7MZe-9hVr9jfp0yZMpjtjCGqWbaomtuVMkXU5anXFc_B4K_jUdLcLeApx1PeRCn5rZxEQAKIWeAaKkA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 39038024 39357981 39477860 39537696 39547622 39437532
39207461 39027436 38607438 38177464 37887538 37837660
38267846 38828000 39038024

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)