ACUS11 KWNS 040044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040044
MNZ000-040215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040044Z - 040215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may pose a risk for all severe hazards
over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Two isolated supercells have recently developed in
close proximity to a surface low analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border.
While the northern supercell has since dissipated, recent HRRR/RRFS
solutions have captured this activity well and suggest that at least
an isolated supercell may persist east-southeastward over the next
1-2 hours before eventually weakening due to nocturnal low-level
stabilization. While the temporal aspect of this scenario remains
somewhat uncertain, a conditional risk for all severe hazards exists
in the short-term. Latest objective analysis depicts effective shear
of 50-60 kts overlapping an MLCAPE bullseye of 3500 J/kg as well as
steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, supportive of large to very
large hail (perhaps 2+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts.
Backed surface winds within the warm sector and modestly enhanced
low-level shear along a weak surface stationary/warm front will also
support the risk for perhaps a tornado. The overall severe risk is
expected to remain confined both spatially and temporally. Thus,
watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 09/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-hipz_v75XwMkR_YDOKG1m4Uu2qQOSClQyVQEXzF8nSG27PLGWO8GEvVfGJkrObqlnvGiTkOXKjKWDq2JS2nApOUHJ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46349604 46379579 46369507 46279467 46059441 45869440
45739464 45759515 45879571 46059608 46239616 46349604

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)