ACUS11 KWNS 032323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032323
MNZ000-040100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...north-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651...

Valid 032323Z - 040100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651
continues.

SUMMARY...A local corridor of increasing damaging wind potential
appears to be emerging across portions of north-central Minnesota.
Widespread tree damage may be possible with these storms as they
move east over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A couple of intense thunderstorm cores have developed
on the southern edge of a north-south line of thunderstorms. These
southern most thunderstorms appear to be interacting with a
west-to-east frontal zone/north-south temperature gradient centered
around 700 mb. Recent 88D radial velocity data from the Duluth, MN,
radar have shown a marked increase in velocities as these storms
interact with the aforementioned temperature gradient. These
thunderstorms are likely ingesting moderately unstable air front the
south, with MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. However, instability
quickly wanes with east/northeast extend as east/northeast winds
across northeast Minnesota have maintained a cooler airmass off Lake
Superior. That said, the degree of instability to the
south/southwest of the ongoing thunderstorms and strong vertical
shear will continue to support a damaging wind threat even into the increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment.

..Marsh.. 09/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7puTpUlj5X4JfWCrQCw6pwkZOR2HHkqbzdeJ_a61R_RwK89GD7KGRY1QHBV9f7RNyPg39FskM6hHRiQhHqKxaQ6Vtko$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

LAT...LON 47509424 47569398 47559344 47489284 47319277 47109287
46969307 46979363 46979404 47249437 47509424

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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