ACUS11 KWNS 032016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032016
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania...western Maryland...and far northern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...

Valid 032016Z - 032215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells across eastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania will likely grow upscale and pose a more substantial
wind threat downstream into central Pennsylvania through the
evening. Downstream watch issuance is expected soon.

DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete supercells are evident in
regional radar imagery across northeast OH and northwest PA with a
few instances of severe hail noted over the past hour. Regional VWPs
continue to sample elongated hodographs favorable for splitting
supercells with an attendant threat for large hail for the next hour
or so. Given the propensity for splitting cells and tight clustering
of convection, upscale growth into one or more organized lines
appears probable over the coming hours. As this occurs, the
potential for severe wind should increase as convection moves into
central PA where air mass recovery has been ongoing through the
afternoon (MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg per recent
mesoanalysis estimates).

..Moore.. 09/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!93b2lg8aP_FD4R0dH06SNTO-pyNIb8_2bYvoaMIOdCLkKk4R87D400_b5nY7vii3vsAKhGBfZsHyL-9kz_pCMTufIgo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41068148 41388079 41698017 41397732 41157698 40807689
39967720 39607747 39487796 39527869 40278123 40498158
40728172 40888169 41068148

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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