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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2217

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, September 03, 2026 20:03:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 032003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032002
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-032200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2217
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0302 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648...649...

    Valid 032002Z - 032200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648, 649
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to organize and
    intensify as it crosses Lake Erie over the next 1-2 hours. The
    potential for severe wind along the lake shore should increase
    through this period.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts steady cold pool
    consolidation within a organizing MCS across southeast Lower MI.
    Velocity imagery and surface observations have been sampling
    occasional wind gusts of 50-65 mph within the line as this
    strengthening has occurred. Downstream, temperatures have been
    steadily warming into the upper 80s and low 90s with MLCAPE values
    increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range - especially along the
    western lake shore. With elongated hodographs across the region (as
    sampled by regional VWPs), it seems likely that further organization/intensification of the line will occur over the next
    couple of hours. Wind gusts between 60-75 mph may become more
    common, including along the southern/eastern shores across northern
    OH where temperatures are rebounding into the upper 80s after the
    passage of a weak lake breeze. Based on recent storm tracks, the
    line should reach the greater Cleveland area within the next 1.5 to
    2.5 hours.

    ..Moore.. 09/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!98r6olspk8PKfAECmRyfrltPLXk3_BJT01e7z3Cab2C19wdAPOSPe-p4AaSshDY4m_TmrwbvdbJ0GZUeV-LORlU6D9k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 40968167 40758193 40718220 41578470 41728483 41888466
    42338372 42738332 42868305 42898276 42218068 42008059
    41818061 41408116 40968167

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)