ACUS11 KWNS 031745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031744
PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-032015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan...northern Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 031744Z - 032015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage over Lower
Michigan, eventually developing southeastward across Lake Erie and
neighboring states. Corridors of damaging wind will be the primary
risk.

DISCUSSION...Strong destabilization has occurred over southern Lower
MI south of warm front. Radar trends show an initial large cluster
of storms anchored near this front, with additional echoes
developing to the southwest. Given the position of the instability
gradient and west/northwest flow aloft, these developing storms
should move southeast/rightward into the afternoon.

Sensors indicate robust precipitable water as well, with over 1.80"
over Lower MI. This, along with steepening boundary layer lapse
rates, will favor strong to severe outflow production downstream. As
such, a watch may be needed soon.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9479Od_UgcUbXNtGZOh-a4qSBjfJT1jgrB4_eZ_0SdMO2Y2kRkCcoLMiRJ5K2fOXjaYfamGg2-Qucmboo5uN84T5NQU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41738465 41938502 42448531 42818540 43128515 43588474
43588431 42828127 42558039 42247989 41817968 41097957
40737993 40868139 41068246 41738465

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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