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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2209

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, September 03, 2026 00:49:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 030049
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030048
    PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-030215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2209
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0748 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

    Areas affected...northern PA vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 646...

    Valid 030048Z - 030215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 646
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe potential will continue over the next few hours
    across northern PA.

    DISCUSSION...The main severe hazard will continue to be damaging
    wind gusts and hail with more discrete convection across
    north-central PA in the short term. VWP data from KCCX indicates
    somewhat small but favorably curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km
    SRH greater than 150 m2/s2. Given the very moist and unstable
    airmass in place, a tornado can not be ruled out, but damaging wind
    and hail are expected to be the primary hazards, especially as loss
    of daytime heating results in gradual low-level stabilization. The
    southern extent of a line moving across western NY will spread into
    portions of northern PA over the next 30-60 minutes. This activity
    could pose a greater risk for damaging gusts given the
    well-organized line and storm motion around 40 kt.

    Downstream across eastern PA, the thermodynamic environment quickly
    becomes more hostile for sustained severe potential. A sharp
    instability gradient and rapidly increasing inhibition should limit
    the eastward extent of severe potential, and a downstream watch is
    not expected.

    ..Leitman.. 09/03/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!60tH8mMp-gdnz6NP8drQfEhF1tXuwLq2ehG522Wf0jMM3XZPSfk7abp6sr41iQGOcjRfR9_5JAfbD1XKV9hlv2quLiQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41817586 41627584 41237594 40907625 40667709 40857928
    41368089 41548096 42108091 42328033 41977893 42027717
    41957605 41817586

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)