ACUS11 KWNS 022352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022351
NYZ000-PAZ000-030115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...western NY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 645...

Valid 022351Z - 030115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 645 continues.

SUMMARY...As storm mode has become more linear with time this
evening, the damaging wind risk may increase over the next 1-2 hours
across western NY. The tornado risk also will continue, particularly
with line-embedded circulations.

DISCUSSION...Earlier supercell storms have consolidated into a more
linear storm structure across western NY this evening. Vertical
shear remains favorable for storm organization, and the KBUF VWP
indicates rear-inflow around 50-60 kt between 1-2 km AGL. The
downstream airmass remains very moist and unstable toward the Finger
Lakes region before approaching a sharper decrease in instability
further east. This thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space
should continue to support organized severe convection capable of
damaging wind swaths. Furthermore, low-level shear remains favorable
for storm rotation and effective STP is around 1 to 2. As such, a
tornado risk will also continue, with line-embedded circulations
already noted over the past 30 minutes or so.

..Leitman.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_4QD_EvCszHrxmyo-gKSMp0u0KSKqW0Lex-o1Y4W7Umn26TZoBbEt0wAr2TwlTkME4tXGarItack5jwjT5p1kUL2zIk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 41957846 42067938 42167957 42377944 42567901 42817858
43167802 43497748 43527713 43477684 43017644 42317636
42097645 41987659 41987712 41957846

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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