ACUS11 KWNS 022136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022136
NYZ000-022300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...western NY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 645...

Valid 022136Z - 022300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 645 continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for intense/damaging wind gusts is increasing
across western New York over the next 1-2 hours. A tornado or two
and large hail also could accompany convection moving into the area
in the 22z-23z/6pm-7pm EDT time period.

DISCUSSION...Two area of intense convection will continue to quickly
move east/southeast from Ontario into western NY over the next 1-2
hours. Both areas of convection are well organized, posing a risk
for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado given a favorable
supercell environment. However, the westernmost cell southwest of
Toronto indicates particularly intense winds aloft in KBUF radar
imagery, suggesting an strong bowing structure could be developing.
This storm is also tracking eastward at around 60 kt. Given MLCAPE
up to 2000-3000 J/kg, 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and
favorable storm mode, the risk for intense, damaging gusts could
increase across western NY over the next 1-2 hours. Additionally, a
very moist boundary layer with dewpoints in the 70s, and effective
STP near 2 within a favorably sheared low-level kinematic
environment suggests a tornado or two also is possible.

..Leitman.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_UQF6MxBqTLoZzOGGn5MgM8o1WDVoEMAIp7GG2OulqsbLi-sA5s0uLjbDHXGEmT7O2gzNanFIEJSOPAw1F6rBATtCvc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON 43767890 43507787 43057743 42677781 42457833 42517905
42647952 43417936 43767890

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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