ACUS11 KWNS 022046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022046
MIZ000-OHZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 022046Z - 022215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon/evening across southeast Michigan and northwest Ohio.

DISCUSSION...Some towering cumulus can be seen on visible satellite
across northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan. Moderate to strong
instability (2000 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) is present across the region
with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s. These
towers are developing within a region of weak forcing and a
relatively weaker zone of deep-layer shear. Therefore, storm
coverage and intensity remains somewhat uncertain. However, given
the trends in satellite and the strongly unstable environment, at
least some damaging wind threat will exist this afternoon/evening.
If updraft development appears robust and coverage is more than
isolated, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4YXMs6BDcd8iOteuy8lKTue5EcwLyJZyPhwU1RISM8mwj63ISzF1iZpOAnfOW7veVHpXUNVuiWF8JAmrZFFm4L0D2-Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 40978337 41208452 41748472 41958488 42748357 42898247
42728212 42458229 41328306 40978337

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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