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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2206

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, September 02, 2026 20:54:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 022048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022048
    MTZ000-022245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2206
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

    Areas affected...North-central Montana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644...

    Valid 022048Z - 022245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds, including significant
    severe winds, will increase over the next couple of hours across
    north-central Montana.

    DISCUSSION...A line of broken convection continues to push north
    across the higher terrain of western MT. Convective cells have
    exhibited relatively short lifespans thus far, likely indicating
    that significant cold-pool amalgamation has yet to occur to support
    sustained updrafts. Nonetheless, strong dynamics (evidenced by 45-55
    mph gusts away from deep convection) coupled with convective
    downdrafts are yielding severe gusts between 60-75 mph.

    The strong non-convective gusts across south-central MT and eastern
    ID are reflective of the stronger low/mid-level jet beginning to
    push northward into central MT. As this feature continues north it
    will overspread a warmer and more deeply mixed air mass in place at
    lower elevation across north-central MT. The combination of stronger
    flow overspreading the top of the deeply mixed boundary layer (as
    suggested by modifying the 18z TFX sounding) coupled with convective augmentation will likely support a corridor of more widespread gusts
    of 65-80 mph - especially where temperatures have warmed into the
    mid 80s.

    ..Moore.. 09/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9-7v1hPww4_bM70Ch8ieu58Cvvebiz_n8h0MohL_LsksWAa2A7RuNM_lrufcIlVMUVUbW4O5a9IGHNewDaORg76kuq4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...

    LAT...LON 48951050 48720993 48400972 47820988 47341014 46721073
    46501123 46481177 46581207 47101240 48301290 48631287
    48881262 48961194 48951050

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)