ACUS11 KWNS 021959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021958
PAZ000-OHZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...northeast Ohio into northwest and north-central
Pennsylvania.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021958Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus can be seen in visible satellite
imagery across northeast Ohio and far northwest Pennsylvania this
afternoon within a region of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 to 45 knots of
effective shear (per SPC HRRR-based mesoanalysis). The Pittsburgh
18Z RAOB showed an environment favorable for severe storms with 3100
J/kg MLCAPE and 38 knots of effective shear. Therefore, any storms
which develop will likely be severe with a damaging wind/large hail
threat. However, given relatively weak forcing across the region,
storm coverage remains uncertain. Current cloud trends and latest
HRRR/RRFS time-lagged guidance suggest scattered storm coverage,
which would increase watch likelihood. However, the lack of forcing
does cast some doubt on overall storm coverage. Therefore, 60% watch probabilities seem appropriate at this time, but if greater storm
coverage appears likely, a watch will be needed.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!978Y-2jpf5F3pYVPkA_XFw4iQxifKR-zAGIpfGgIYBHRZ0l_EHcv8Xi8m00FUuLu6cE4O-dLvJanFFeGqgyaKLpZ-zc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41108181 41848073 41907941 41977763 41367739 40787783
40697914 40668002 40858175 41108181

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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