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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2201

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, September 02, 2026 19:02:34
    ACUS11 KWNS 021851
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021850
    NYZ000-022045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2201
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

    Areas affected...western New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 021850Z - 022045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase this
    afternoon/evening. A watch will be needed by 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have formed along a frontal zone across southern
    Ontario where moderate instability has developed this afternoon. The
    airmass ahead of the front will continue to destabilize with
    moderate to potentially strong instability expected across western
    New York by late afternoon. The aforementioned instability, combined
    with moderate to strong shear should support initial supercells, but
    clustering into a more mixed-mode may occur through the late
    afternoon and into the evening. Damaging winds will be the primary
    threat, especially where any bowing structures develop amid
    clustering storms.

    A more conditional hail/tornado threat may develop if more discrete
    storm mode can be maintained. The early convective development
    across Ontario does lead to more uncertainty in the maintenance of
    supercell mode. The storms may congeal into one or more linear
    structures before entering western New York. However, if a more
    discrete mode can be maintained after 23Z, when the low level jet is
    forecast to strengthen, a greater tornado threat may exist.
    Therefore, a tornado watch may need to be issued, especially if
    discrete supercell mode appears possible this evening as low-level
    shear increases.

    ..Bentley/Gleason.. 09/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_ztaUS8Bzk0MADqUdJfDapBPPNqdsRPp4UxX5gQRKBKgt5uuv5iGdbpCcUYgqVAH4Ka48tYLVK_jQX1QTPs_whP4ALI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43367917 43547637 42637619 42047623 42077932 42497955
    43367917

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)