ACUS11 KWNS 021510
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021509
MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-021615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Southern Pennsylvania and Maryland

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642...

Valid 021509Z - 021615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized storm cluster in Pennsylvania could persist
into Maryland as the low levels warm, and a downstream watch will
likely be needed before 16z.

DISCUSSION...A bowing MCS with ~50 kt rear inflow jet is moving
southeastward from central PA and will approach the MD border by
about 16z. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations
suggest strong surface heating is ongoing to the south of the MCS
cloud shield, roughly along and south of a northwest-southeast
oriented baroclinic zone that extends across the northern Chesapeake
Bay area. The phasing of the MCS with the diurnal heating cycle
suggests the potential for the storms to be maintained into at least
early afternoon into MD as destabilization continues, and a new
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour.

..Thompson.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Bj9IzgaHdoFnKDvEutGPL_aAd6hO-HGCliM3SlbgWW5iwNZg4i1zbASBub_yE0coBaTu8K5lLXwEXrc_yRh8bXmXqE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40507711 40157669 39607606 39057588 38777605 38687651
38897722 39427791 39667815 40007842 40297828 40307763
40507711

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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