WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 045
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 22.9N 117.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 117.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.7N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.9N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.8N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.6N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 117.8E. 02SEP26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W
(SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (KROVANH) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

From WDPN32:
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 17W (SAUDEL) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SLOWING
DOWN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES MUCH
WEAKER DUE TO THE NER TO THE SOUTH MOVING OFF TO THE WEST. 17W IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD
ONCE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS OVER EASTERN CHINA AND ASSUMES
STEERING OVER THE SYSTEM. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR SOON AFTER TAU 12. A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 17W IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE
VORTEX REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS. AFTER TAU 12, TERRAIN
INTERACTION AND SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE VORTEX.
DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48, NORTH
OF HONG KONG.

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