ACUS11 KWNS 021038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021037
MIZ000-WIZ000-021230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...East-central WI into parts of Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021037Z - 021230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible through dawn.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS is moving across east-central WI early
this morning. While there has been some tendency for warming cloud
tops with this MCS, a 51 kt gust was recently noted from Appleton,
WI (KATW), and low-level velocities remain vigorous from the KGRB
radar. If this MCS can persist as it crosses Lake Michigan, it will
begin to encounter somewhat richer low-level moisture and stronger
buoyancy over lower MI, which may help to sustain at least an
isolated wind-damage threat with this MCS through dawn.

Farther east, discrete cells to the north and northwest of Detroit
have occasionally shown some signs of organization, within a
favorable environment (MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear
of 30-40 kt). The longevity of these cells may tend to be limited,
though localized wind-damage and hail cannot be ruled out for as
long as they persist. Later this morning, the favorable environment
across central/eastern lower MI may allow for intensification of the
upstream MCS, or else redevelopment of organized convection with the
attendant MCV.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_rtv_8uFfGxrJQ3qUsPxZvooAb-G3UjiT_KDbAFtz-MKZBo4VgtGyGb_k19ql_dvMhglduofH3HIrBPp98INGDw-_Rw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON 44738761 44718500 44588301 43058234 42668230 42678285
43118462 43578631 43888823 44738761

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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