ACUS11 KWNS 021005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021004
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-021200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021004Z - 021200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage and severe potential is
possible with time this morning.

DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters are approaching the Lower Great
Lakes vicinity early this morning. The downstream environment
remains generally favorable for organized convection, with MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 35-45 kt. Large-scale ascent
is generally rather modest, though low-level warm advection may help
to sustain the ongoing storm clusters through dawn.

Short-term severe potential remains uncertain with the ongoing
storms. The cluster mode and generally modest midlevel lapse rates
are not particularly favorable for hail, while low-level stability
may temper severe-wind potential downstream of the lakes. As a
result, the wind-damage and hail potential may tend to remain rather
isolated. If any of these clusters are able to persist into mid
morning and beyond, then diurnal heating/destabilization may allow
for intensification and an increasing downstream severe threat.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8vobmPiDfuzHTJqQYzPtMiDim5Gf4PHdUI6c8kik2RHu4drjLZGWHf80yhp5vFU3dmL_uJWagfIgwvbVYvnI66GXSCs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 42417755 41917842 41287970 41088060 41568135 41738154
41918155 42008147 42088121 42497988 43387910 43957794
43927743 43667679 43267666 42417755

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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